Recession-Proof Your Business Through a Diminishing Economy

This paper introduces ways in which your business can avoid the detrimental and long-lasting effects of a recession. Read more about how soaring inflation will lead to a recession and how your business will be directly impacted by our diminishing economy if action is not taken immediately.

1. INTRODUCTION

The late delivery of online orders and soaring gas prices are just two examples of a looming economic recession. A recession will occur in the United States–the only question is, when? Senior Contributor Leadership Strategist Bill Conerly forecasts a momentous recession in early 2023. Murray Sabrin, a professor of finance in the Anisfield School of Business at Ramapo College and perennial candidate for public office in New Jersey, predicts that inflation will accelerate in 2022, promoting a recession in the fall of 2023. Further, he boldly states, “If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.” 

First and foremost, what is a recession and how does it differ from a depression? 

An economic recession is a decline of real gross domestic product, or GDP (1), for two consecutive quarters to one fiscal year. An economic depression is an extreme downturn in GDP for several years. There are three major contrasts between a depression and a recession: 

1. Severity
2. Duration
3. Overall impact 

A depression holds more severity as it crescendos to the global stage, causing sharper unemployment rates and a steeper decline in GDP. Recessions are often limited to single countries; however, recessions are not to be taken lightly. Both economic recession and depression have similar indicators such as but are not limited to: 

1.  A decline in real GDP
2.  A decline in real income
3.  A rise in unemployment
4.  Slowed industrial production and retail sales
5.  Lack of consumer spending

Though not on a global scale, an economic recession displays the same stressors as a depression. Therefore, it should be addressed as the latter, for the victims of these downturns are not the well-cushioned CEOs or any Fortune 500 companies, but rather the workers–the everyday people who fuel our economy. 

1 Total market value of the goods and services produced by a country’s economy during a specified period of time

2. PAST RECESSIONS AND CURRENT TENSIONS

The United States is no stranger to economic recession. Since 1945, the US has endured 13 recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).  Figure 1 depicts the rise of unemployment from 1950 to 2020 with each peak representing an economic recession. Each of these recessions displays a combination of the five indicators listed above. Table 1 lists a summary of each recession and its causes.

This brings us to the current economic tensions. The looming Coronavirus recession would be due to three factors: Slowed industrial production, the rise in unemployment, and a decline in GDP. Initial lockdowns sparked a flame of business closures, especially small ones, resulting in layoffs. However, consumers were cushioned by the Federal Government in the form of stimulus payments and unemployment insurance. The Federal Government has disregarded deficits as state and local governments continue to be flushed with federal money. With abundant government support, people are less inclined to return to work and layoffs have continued due to the vaccine mandates. 

Consider the imbalance. Consumers have extra cash, which results in stronger buying demands. This strong demand must be met with strong supply chain power, but with what manpower? People are either not returning to work or are being laid off. Supply chain challenges have stalled manufacturers with insufficient materials that cannot meet the stronger consumer demand. The supply limitation prevents growth and progress; however, consumer spending continues to grow resulting in inflation and delays just like your late order arrival. The combination of these two factors results in an overall decline in GDP. To make subtle adjustments, the Federal Reserve will eventually have to start tapering its stimulus support. Sometime in mid-2022, it will begin to raise short-term interest rates in an attempt to slow down the economy.

A Looming War

Vladamir Putin’s inability to stay within his borders has caused a stressful shift in the global economy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the cause of inflation of gas and natural oil. Russia supplies 10% of global gas demand and although the US imports comparatively little gas from Russia, a change in price in one part of the world will cause a rippling effect globally.  

With an inevitable quake ready to shake the US economy, business owners need to monitor these indicators and plan for a post-Covid-19 and post-war recession. A crucial aspect of this preparation is researching how consumers will behave once an economic downturn does happen.

3. INTRODUCTION TO MASLOW’S PYRAMID

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is a motivational psychological theory composed of 5-tiers based on human needs–often depicted as hierarchical levels within a pyramid. 

The 5- tiers are (1 being the most essential): 

1. Physiological needs
2. Safety needs
3. Love and belonging
4. Esteem
5. Self-actualization

Maslow has identified two types of needs within his hierarchy: 

Deficiency Needs: Physiological, security, social, and esteem needs are deficiency needs, which arise due to deprivation. Satisfying these lower-level needs is important to avoid unpleasant feelings or consequences.

Growth Needs: Maslow termed the highest level of the pyramid as growth needs. These needs don’t stem from a lack of something, but rather from a desire to grow as a person.

COVID-19 has manifested itself globally as both a health and economic pandemic, striking individuals’ emotional reactions from the base of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs pyramid. At the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak, individuals were placed under strict containment measures; however, consumers were willing to leave homes to purchase essential goods at the expense of their health. This demonstrates how consumers are motivated to satisfy Maslow’s needs by disregarding potentially negative economic or health outcomes (Ballantine 2013; Yuen et al. 2020).

3.1. APPLICATION OF MASLOW’S PYRAMID 

As the economy heads into a recession, your business must be prepared to cushion the shortages. To understand the consumers’ decision-making process, businesses must apply Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs and analyze the satisfaction behind desires and essentials. This technique is so businesses can hypothesize consumers’ motivates and how they prioritize their spending.

Consumer behaviors shift when stress and uncertainty are present. During times of uncertainty, consumer behavior theories demonstrate how individuals attempt to gain a sense of control through product acquisition and panic buying (Ballantine 2013; Yuen et al. 2020). Forbes’ (2017) study of the aftermath of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake examined that consumers’ purchases tended to products that met basic physiological needs for survival, products providing communication and resource services, and products for cleaning up and restoring normal life. 

Black and Cusbert (2012) concurred that during periods of crisis, consumer behaviors followed Maslow’s expectation of spending–it shifted to the consumption of essential goods, or non-durable goods (2) (i.e., foods and transportation), while consumption of durable goods (3) became volatile. Figure 2 exemplifies how consumer spending on durable goods declined versus spending on non-durable goods and services as GDP decreased from 2007 to 2008. 

COVID-19 has shifted consumers’ psychological reasoning to survival mode, striking individuals’ reactions from the base of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Consumers will continue to satisfy lower-order needs until the threat of COVID-19 has subsided (Loxton et al.).

For businesses to continue to have relevance, we have compiled an extensive list of what we like to call “Recession Proof Products” that target each category of Maslow’s Pyramid. The use of Maslow’s Pyramid, in this dynamic, is to offer insight on what businesses should have available and sell during times of economic downturn, as well as marketing strategies to promote brands effectively and efficiently during times of distress. 

All the products listed are fully customizable and come in bulk when you order through Perfect Imprints.

2 Immediate or almost immediate consumption and have a life span ranging from minutes to three years.

3 Goods that do not need to be purchased very often and typically last for at least three years.

Physiological Products 

The Physiological needs are the base of Maslow’s pyramid. It is the most prepotent of all the needs. If left unsatisfied, all other needs may become non-existent or pushed into the background (cite Maslow). In this business aspect, we will assume that the clients have already met the basics of all needs (i.e water, food, and shelter). According to Maslow, “What happens to man’s duress when there is plenty of bread and his belly is filled? Higher needs emerge.” Targeting the higher level of the physiological drives, we will focus on products that supplement the basic needs.

Because a recession will affect every person differently, here are the products we find to be most useful to satisfy the physiological need, but first, ideal industries.

Ideal Industries: 

• Drugstores
• Health and Beauty
• Travel
• Grocery Store 
• Department Stores 
• Small Businesses
• Children’s Stores

Hygiene Promotional Kits 

Personal hygiene promotional products are great starting points to target consumers’ physiological needs through a recession. Proper hygiene is the best way to protect yourself from getting infectious diseases such as COVID-19, colds, and flu. Provide essential personal hygiene kits to your consumers for any situation.

This kit includes: 

• Natural Peppermint Beeswax Lip Balm (contains Vitamin E & Aloe) 
• A rubber grip toothbrush 
• Mini dental floss 
• A small tube of Colgate toothpaste
• A heart-shaped container stocked with peppermints for freshness on the go

This kit has you covered on all fronts. Packaged in a convenient BioBox, it is the perfect choice for dentists, doctors, and more. 2.25″ W x 9.75″ L       

Businesses can print their logo on the bottles’ matte labels, and users can write about the contents inside. Contents inside comply with FDA standards.

Baby Essentials

Newborn Kit

3 products will constitute our essential newborn kit. Further, this kit is meant for on-the-go families. Each bottle is travel-sized. 

1. New Born Diapers 
2. Baby shampoo and Body Wash 
3. Bady Powder

If you have any other creative designs, please feel free to contact us (If over 1,000pcs, we can customize the package). 5.5″ L x 5.9″ W

Baby Sleeping Bag/Swaddle Sack 

The baby sleeping bag/swaddle sack provides comfort and protection for little ones. It can be used as a great nursing cover, a great blanket to lay your baby, and a comfort blanket for your toddler.  Imprint your exclusive logo, everyone who uses it will know your company name. 26.77″ L x 14.96″ W x 0.14″ H.

Baby Travel Diaper Backpack

Store all your infants’ essentials in our multifunctional baby travel diaper backpack. This stylish bag is made of durable and waterproof oxford fabric with non-fraying stitching and strong zippers. Size: 16” X 15.6” X 7.8”. 53L capacity and 30” wide open diaper bag backpack with 16 independent pockets. It will auto assemble into a portable baby bed. Comes available in 6 colors and yes dad we have it in black.

Paw Patrol Essentials 

Don’t forget to tailor your brand towards pet owners. We understand that your pets are just as important as anyone else in the family. For businesses, this presents a creative and PAWfect way to market your brand.

Pooch Pack Clean-Up Kit

For outdoor walks, the pooch pack clean-up kit is the all-in-one gear every pet owner needs.  The Pooch Pack Clean-Up Kit is the perfect pet care accessory to promote cleanliness and responsible pet ownership! This 600D Dacron pouch has a quick sanitizer access hole, waste bag dispenser flap, and an adjustable belt loop. Includes 15 waste bags and 0.5 oz hand sanitizer. Great for dog walking, doggy daycare, dog events, pet clinics, pet training, and pet-friendly businesses and neighborhoods. 3.75″ L x 1.75″ W x 3″ H. Add in a roll of black refill liter bags as a free with every purchase gift.

Pet First Aid Kit

In case of any emergency, a pet first aid kit is handy to have. This 600D Polyester Clamshell Bag with full zipper & 2 inner zippered mesh pockets includes: 1 abdominal pad, 1 triangular bandage w/pins, 1 self-adherent wrap, 1 conform bandage, 25 cotton-tipped applicators, 6 gauze pads, flea comb, disposal poop bags, disposal gloves, cloth tape, 10 BZK antiseptic towelettes, 2 sting relief wipes, 2 hand wipes, 1 Sani-Hands® wipe, 1 instant cold pack, 2 emergency drinking water, emergency whistle, 3 tongue depressors, Mylar survival blanket, poncho and more. 65. 9.5″ W x 5″ H x 3″ D

Natural Soothing Products 

Now more than ever, people what to find a natural remedy. Try carrying or gifting some of these natural soothing products within your business to satisfy physiological needs.

CBD

CBD has shown significant popularity in recent years. Extracted from  the cannabis Sativa plant and transformed into a beneficial soothing product, CDB can be found in a range of products such as: 

• Verma Farms 500 mg Natural Flavor CBD Oil 
• Verma Farms 500 mg Blueberry Wave CBD Gummies 
• CBD Worx Isolated Ph.D. Pain Cream 600 mg 
• CBD Freeze Gel 
• CBD Infused RLB Lip Balm

Who to market to? 

Market to your loyal customers first. These products are not water or food which means consumers will not think to panic buy it first but rather next-hence higher level physiological needs. This is where your loyal customers become a true asset. Your business has a 65% retention rate for existing consumers versus new prospects. Let your existing clients know you appreciate them by sending appreciative emails featuring these products and offering exclusive discounts, etc. These consumers will not only repeat purchases but will likely recommend you to other prospects.

Safety Needs 

When an individual’s physiological needs are well gratified, their motivation progresses to the next level. This category is known as Safety Needs (cite Maslow). Maslow theorized that individuals feel safe when their routine is running “smoothly” or “good”. It is the disruption of this routine (i.e global pandemic or a recession) that causes individuals to feel endangered. “[T]he needs for safety is seen as an active and dominant mobilizer of the organism’s resources only in emergencies, e.g war, disease, natural catastrophes, crime waves, societal disorganization, neurosis, brain injury, chronically bad situations” (cite Maslow). When this does occur, individuals will attempt to regain order primarily through safe-seeking tools. These safe-seeking tools can manifest in different ways such as security measures, or stockpiling resources. 

Ideal Industries: 

• Home Improvement Stores
• Drugstores
• Wilderness-Themed Stores
• Travel
• Grocery Store 
• Department Stores 

Encourage and Empower 

How can your business market safety during a recession? By encouraging and empowering your consumers. Your marketing strategy should always be updated especially during market and economic changes. This shows your business is proactive, adaptive, and trustworthy. Your business needs to be a safe resource for your consumers. They need to know that the products you are selling are meant to help them feel secure and ready for any uncertainty.

Take it a step further with the Ring Video Doorbell 3. The newest generation doorbell features upgraded security to protect any home. It includes improved motion detection, enhanced wifi, and customizable motion zones, so you can keep an eye on what’s happening anytime, from anywhere. Adjust your motion zones to focus on key areas, minimize false alerts and send only the notifications you care about most. With Video Doorbell 3, you’ll be closer to home than ever before. Includes Satin Nickel faceplate.

Cover any outdoor space with the Ring Floodlight Cam Pro. Upgrade your outdoor security with Floodlight Cam Wired Pro. Stop crime in its tracks with ultra-bright LED floodlights. Stay protected in almost any weather condition with our new 3D Motion Detection. And monitor motion events from above with Bird’s Eye View. Available in black and white.

House Essentials 

With home security taken care of, it’s time to look inwards. These products are meant to boost confidence and efficiency inside the house in the event of a recession. Starting with detectors for things we can not see. 

Samsung Water Leak Sensor

The Samsung water leak sensor receives alerts when water is detected in your home, monitor for leaks around the hot water heater, in the basement, and under the sink–instantly take action to avoid water damage. The Leak Sensor is often paired with the Samsung Motion Sensor. Receive an alert if there’s unexpected movement in your home, customize commands to have lights or devices turn on or off with motion, monitor temperature in an area of your home, and trigger a compatible thermostat to adjust automatically. 

Take it to the next level with the LED night motion sensor. This night light not only can be used as a daily night light but also can be used as a motion sensor light. With RIP technology, When you use “AUTO” mode, our lights will turn on automatically when motion is detected at night and turns off automatically after 30s inactivities. ON/AUTO/OFF. 6 LED beads provide soft lights to illuminate your way at night. The downward lighting makes you and your family’s eyes feel more comfortable in the dark. 3.15″ L x 3.58″ W x 0.57″ H.

Arrow Wireless Router

With all these top-notch security basics a reliable wireless connection is needed. The Arrow Wireless Router is a powerful wireless broadband wireless router for home or office wireless internet connectivity. Simply insert a 4G/LTE SIM card and the built-in modem connects to the internet. Thanks to a blazing-fast data speed of 300 Mbps via WiFi or LAN connection, you can enjoy wireless internet access throughout your home or office. Axis can also supply the AT&T data plan and SIM card, contact Axis for current pricing. 150 Mbps 4G/LTE mobile broadband Up to 300 Mbp.

Why go wireless during a recession? Wireless connection allows you to stay up-to-date on all world news during an economic downfall and check in on loved ones! 

Child-Friendly Security Basics 

For households with young children or babies, safety is especially important. Consider these safe yet mighty safe basics to protect your young ones from danger.

Personal Security 

Kubatons For Self Defence Keychains 

Kubatons are made from aluminum alloy, this self-defense spike is also referred to as a Kubotan in the world of martial arts. A short-range weapon that is commonly used for joint manipulations, pressure point techniques, and strikes. The weapon can be held in a closed fist to provide hardened punches, or used for striking via short forward jabs or even ice pick style hammer fist strikes. The solid aluminum construction and compact size make this defense tool easy to carry and conceal. 5 1/4″ L. 

Personal Safety Alarm 

To work this bar-shaped design alarm, simply click the switch button. The ear-piercing alarm will be activated for making a 120DB continuous sharp sound that can spread in a very wide area with dual speakers. It can help you get the maximum attention of police and other people in public. Fit for Student, Jogger, Elderly, Kids, Women or girls. Comes with a whistle. It’s also a necessary supply for traveling, hiking, camping, and walking the pets. Suitable for all ages. 2.95″ L x 1.37″ W x 0.59″ H.

Emergency Survival Whistle 

This ultimate life-saving whistle, is made of stainless steel with a louder sound used in emergencies. The double tubes can provide up to 150 decibels pitch that can be heard from a far distance. It is highly durable! Double Tube design, it is easily blown softly so that just the blast out a loud tone. The perfect size to attach to a keychain or backpack, you could put it on your keychain and take it everywhere you go. It is fashionable, practical, and portable. 2.2″ L x 0.7″ W.

Pepper Spray 

10% Oleoresin Capsicum with blue marking dye. Quick-release key ring and belt clip, 19 grams. Formula legal in 50 states; NY, MA & HI require FFL. Export restrictions may apply and a license may be necessary to sell. Local restrictions may also apply, please check with your local authorities.

Matches 

Traditional wood match in a 4CP digitally decorated white box. Each box has 23-24 matches. Two-inch match sticks are natural colors with whiteheads. Many other color and size options are available in higher quantities with longer, overseas production. A great product for parties, weddings, hospitality businesses. 2 1/8″ L x 1 3/8″ W x 3/8″ H.

Love and Belonging 

Local to Hyper-Local response to covid-19 

After physiological and safety needs have been fulfilled, the third level of human needs is social and involves feelings of belongingness. Belongingness refers to a human emotional need for interpersonal relationships, affiliating, connectedness, and being part of a group. A research study conducted in the UK showed that engaging in the community will foster that sense of love and belonging. 

Local and hyper-local charity, voluntary and mutual aid groups were key to the early response to the pandemic. They have demonstrated the importance of community-led infrastructure and resilience that enables communities to support and respond to local needs effectively in both the short and long term.  COVID-19 accelerated these existing models of community engagement and enabled them to strengthen community relations. Community-level COVID-19 responses are the shift from local to ‘hyper-local’ forms of intervention and organization which strengthen physical outreach support amongst communities. 

Further, a new cohort of people has volunteered for the first time. Grassroot activities powered by younger people were strengthened by that local to hyper-local shift. Since the older population was more vulnerable to the virus, the younger population stepped in. Additionally, these grassroots activities were centered around:  

• Packing and distributing emergency food aid 
• Provisions of social support- especially for isolated and vulnerable residents 
• Community Fridge and Freezers 
• Provision of space for local activities and outreach 
• Online Activities 
• Wellbeing and Mental Health supports 

Business and Community engagement 

During times of economic downturn your business must make their presences known in the community. Be transparent and over-communicate with your community, especially during a recession. Share information about your business’s decisions and relevant product changes by using social media platforms such as Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, and even Facebook to announce these changes. Highlight your company’s recent local endeavors such as supplying the local soup kitchen with various kitchen essentials or providing social entertainment to churches, community centers, and more.

Wireless Connection 

No one was prepared for the shift of a tech-savvy society but it has transferred how society works, educates, and communicates. Below are three wireless connection must-haves to help individuals stay connected.

Esteem

Esteem needs are the fourth level in Maslow’s hierarchy and include self-worth, accomplishment, and respect. As a business, this is the level to show employee appreciation and empowerment. Treat your employees how you would business owners. Treat team members like business owners. Empower them to stretch and grow by fostering a supportive environment that nurtures innovation by rewarding successes but not punishing efforts that turn out off-the-mark. Further, reward them with products that they will actually like or use. Remember, you are all going through this recession together!

Office Supplies Gift Set 

Desk Pad Calendar 

Desk pads keep a customer’s name in front of potential clients on a daily basis. Vinyl corners provide an attractive frame and durability. Complies with Prop 65. 22″ W x 17″ H.

Stationery Kit 

7 in 1 Stationery Kit includes Stapler, Staples, Sticky Notes, Paper Clips, Hole Puncher, Tape Dispenser, And Rubber Bands. Snap Close Fastener. Complies with Prop 65. 4 3/4″ W x 3 1/2″ H. 

Marketing Idea: free with every purchase: Spiral Book with sticky notes and flags

Pens 

An economic pen with a classy and slick look the Paker Pen is a great gift for any employee, client, or student. Its plunger action mechanism allows for quick access and its aluminum body is crafted to last.

Positive Employee Renforcement Tips 

Tip #1: Appreciate the small successes 

As a business, we take time to celebrate large achievements such as meeting quarterly goals or surpassing profit expectations. However, it is important to acknowledge the small successes that led to the big successes. Further, small successes fosters optimism and motivation within the company. 

Tip #2: Invest time in cultivating positive thoughts 

During stressful periods it is easy to fall into a downward spiral. As an employer, it is important to keep the language positive in the work environment. What does this look like? A simple way to improve a positive work environment is using words that foster confidence in conversation such as “ believe”, “progress” accomplish”, etc. When speaking at the next meeting, consider using these words or synonyms to start cultivating positive thoughts. You express something along the lines of, “I am encouraged by the progress we are making.” Further, it is important to use “we” and “us” to foster this sense of teamwork and collaborative mindset. 

Tip #3: Make every situation a lesson learned 

Not every situation or project at work is going to have the results you want. That’s ok. As an employer, your staff will look to you for guidance. A good leader takes every situation as a lesson learned, not a failure. To communicate this message to your staff, one method to try is the “compliment sandwich”. The compliment sandwich aims to tackle challenging conversations. This tactic offers a piece of critique between two positive compliments easing the tension of the criticism. The pros of the compliment sandwich include: 

• May ease the sting of hearing difficult comments
• Encourages specificity in the feedback process
• Allows employees to increase their receptiveness to criticism
• Enables meetings to end on a positive note
• Can be useful for managers who find it difficult to engage in criticism

Self-Actualization

Self-actualization needs are the last level in Maslow’s hierarchy, and refers to the realization of a person’s potential, self-fulfillment, seeking personal growth, and peak experiences. Maslow (1943) describes this level as the desire to accomplish everything that one can, to become the most that one can be. This level is unique to everyone. Often self-reflection is needed to start an individual’s path to self-improvement.  Your business is no different. Your business is a reflection of you.

SUMMARY

Is your business recession-proof? Any and all businesses are susceptible to great success and future collapse. The difference between these two fates is a company’s ability to adapt to the times.  More specifically a company’s ability to predict consumer behavior. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is a resource that companies should use as a guide when analyzing consumer behavior. Understanding the critical difference between the needs and wants of consumers is key to company survival during stressful economic periods. The comprehensive breakdown of each tier gives companies extensive knowledge of expected consumer behavioral patterns. Our guide aims to give companies an outline of products that would be valuable and profitable during economic recessions based on Maslow’s pyramid. Further, this guide goes beyond products but also educates companies on how to keep employee morale positive and how to show consumer appreciation with small encouraging gifts. These marketing strategies were created with people in mind first and profit second. Recession-proof your business, today! 

Acknowledgments

Patrick Black Sr inspired this work and provided feedback, terminology suggestions, and help through the closing denouement. Sarah Garcia collaborated on writing and restructuring the paper and provided invaluable corrections, suggestions, and feedback in the process. Tammy Mathis, Mimi Ramirez, Kaitey Allen, and Kelsey Gauthé provided key ideas and crucial suggestions for product needs. Finally, the authors would like to thank the entire Perfect Imprints team for their support, feedback, and encouragement.

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